Sector

Iran Risk

7 reports on how Trump moves Iran Risk markets · 6 bullish · 1 bearish

Signal Trend

Last 3 months · 7 reports

Bullish Bearish Neutral

6/1

6/8

6/15

6/22

6/29

7/6

7/13

7/20

7/27

8/3

8/10

8/17

8/24

Bar height shows how often Iran Risk appeared in reports that week; color shows whether those reports read the sector as bullish, bearish, or mixed.

Trump Sends Saudi Nuclear Deal to Congress — Uranium Enrichment on Saudi Soil, While Bombing Iran for the Same Thing

2026-08-26

Iran Risk ↑

Trump Sends Saudi Nuclear Deal to Congress — Uranium Enrichment on Saudi Soil, While Bombing Iran for the Same Thing

Trump submitted the US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement (123 Agreement) to Congress on August 25. Unless Congress blocks it with a veto-proof two-thirds joint resolution — which is unlikely — the deal takes effect, opening a path to uranium enrichment facilities on Saudi territory with US companies participating. Saudi Arabia has not signed the IAEA Additional Protocol. Non-proliferation groups call it a double standard: the US went to war over Iran's enrichment program and is now clearing a path for Saudi Arabia's. The real gate is Israel: Trump has conditioned the deal on Saudi joining the Abraham Accords.

Trump: Hormuz Is US Territory — And We're Not Sure We Even Want a Deal With Iran

2026-08-22

Iran Risk ↑

Trump: Hormuz Is US Territory — And We're Not Sure We Even Want a Deal With Iran

Speaking at a rally in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on August 21, Trump repeated and escalated his claim that the Strait of Hormuz is US territory, then added the most bearish signal yet for any Iran resolution: 'Iran desperately wants a deal, but we don't even know if we want one.' The statement rules out near-term normalization even under favorable Iranian conditions. Trump also warned that if Republicans lose the midterms, he faces impeachment — framing November as an existential vote for his foreign and economic agenda.

Trump Goes on WABC With Michael Cohen. No Iran Exit. No Trade Regrets. A Political Rapprochement.

2026-08-21

Iran Risk ↑

Trump Goes on WABC With Michael Cohen. No Iran Exit. No Trade Regrets. A Political Rapprochement.

Trump appeared on his own WABC Radio station for an interview with Michael Cohen — the former fixer who spent 15 years as Trump's personal attorney, turned state's witness, and is now apparently reconciling. Trump called the US economy an 'economic renaissance,' said he would launch the Iran war '100 times over,' and called Cohen 'brilliant' and a victim of prosecutorial pressure. The meeting of two estranged principals produced no policy news — but signaled Trump's political posture heading into midterms: no regrets, no exits, economy as identity.

Trump Declares 'Economic D-Day' Against Iran. The Real Weapon Is Dubai.

2026-08-20

Iran Risk ↑

Trump Declares 'Economic D-Day' Against Iran. The Real Weapon Is Dubai.

Trump announced 'the most powerful economic operation in history' against Iran on August 19 — calling it 'Economic D-Day' and warning that any country providing Iran a financial lifeline will face 'enormous economic consequences.' The move came one day after the UAE announced a full trade and financial embargo against Iran, cutting off what experts call Iran's 'economic lung.' The WSJ reported the outcome of the campaign will be decided in Dubai — not at Hormuz.

Trump Is Pushing for a Kim Meeting at APEC. North Korea Isn't Interested. South Korea Is Paying the Price.

2026-08-19

Iran Risk ↑

Trump Is Pushing for a Kim Meeting at APEC. North Korea Isn't Interested. South Korea Is Paying the Price.

Trump encouraged aides in a private meeting to arrange a summit with Kim Jong-un around the APEC gathering in Shenzhen (November 18-19). No official plan exists. North Korea's response: cold — even after Trump reduced joint exercises with South Korea, Pyongyang threatened to respond to 'hostile acts with new force.' Analysis from US officials and Axios points to a clear motive: Trump needs a diplomatic win as midterms approach and the Iran war offers no exit. South Korea, once praised as a model ally, has become the scapegoat.

Trump Says the US Has 'Total Control' of Hormuz. The Ship Data Says Otherwise.

2026-08-13

Iran Risk ↑

Trump Says the US Has 'Total Control' of Hormuz. The Ship Data Says Otherwise.

Trump posted on Truth Social that the US has 'total control' of the Hormuz Strait and that Iran's IRGC is 'routed and running.' The WSJ checked the ship tracking data: on August 11, only 14 ships crossed — down from 130+ before the war — and 11 of those 14 used Iran-managed routes. Of 166 total crossings this month, only 2 used the US-supported Oman coastal route. Separately, there is now a direct contradiction between Turkish and Iranian accounts of whether a ceasefire extension is being negotiated at all.

Trump Is 'Low Keying It' on Iran. The Hormuz Strait Is Still Closed.

2026-08-10

Iran Risk ↓

Trump Is 'Low Keying It' on Iran. The Hormuz Strait Is Still Closed.

Trump told Axios he's 'low keying it' on Iran — watching Iran's inflation and economic collapse rather than resuming large-scale strikes. One week ago he was leaning toward a new military operation. The pivot is tactical, not strategic: the Hormuz Strait remains closed, Iran's conditions for reopening include reparations and US troop withdrawal, and Vance says the US is 'in the middle of the game.' Oil at $75 is buying Trump political room. That room has a clock.

Other Sectors

Oil / Energy (56)Defense (56)Gold (52)Financial (33)Diplomacy (32)Transport / Aviation (20)Dollar (17)Equities (14)Geopolitical Risk (11)Auto / Manufacturing (11)Tech / AI (9)US Political Risk (8)