Trump Says the US Has 'Total Control' of Hormuz. The Ship Data Says Otherwise.

Trump posted on Truth Social on August 12 that the United States has "total control" of the Hormuz Strait. "I think we'll keep it that way," he wrote. He described the US maritime blockade as "what everyone is calling a 'wall of steel'" and said Iran "can't do anything about it."

He also claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is "routed and running," that Iran's leadership is "uncertain, to put it nicely," and that Iran is "all talk and no action" — "no longer the bully of the Middle East."

The WSJ ran the ship tracking data the same day.

What the Data Shows

Before the war, more than 130 ships per day crossed the Hormuz Strait. On August 11, 14 crossed.

Of those 14, 11 used Iran-managed routes.

Ship tracking firm Kpler found that of the 166 Hormuz crossings recorded so far this month, roughly half used Iran-managed shipping lanes. The other half turned off their transponders and did not disclose their routes. Only 2 of the 166 crossings were confirmed to have used the US-supported Oman coastal route.

The US-supported alternative route — the Oman coastal corridor that American naval presence is intended to protect — accounted for 2 out of 166 Hormuz crossings this month. Iran-managed routes accounted for approximately half of all crossings. Ships turning off their transponders represent the rest. "Total control" describes neither the traffic volume (down 89% from pre-war) nor the routing pattern (majority Iran-managed or undisclosed). The actual state of the Strait is: severely disrupted, with Iran retaining operational influence over what traffic does move.

The Ceasefire Dispute

A parallel contradiction has emerged over whether a ceasefire extension is even being discussed.

Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency reported on August 12, citing Pakistani government sources, that both the US and Iran have notified Pakistan — acting as intermediary — that they consent to extending the ceasefire beyond its August 17 deadline. Anadolu reported that the two sides are discussing how long to extend it.

Reuters reported the opposite, citing a senior Iranian official: "There are no ceasefire talks between the US and Iran, and from Iran's perspective there is no date on which a ceasefire began, so there is nothing to extend."

The Iranian position, per Reuters, is that the US must return to a previously signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) and set a timeline for implementing its commitments before Iran will engage on any formal extension framework.

These two accounts cannot both be correct. Either:

• There is an active ceasefire extension being negotiated through Pakistan, which Iran is denying publicly for domestic political reasons
• There is no ceasefire framework at all, and Turkey's Anadolu report reflects Pakistani optimism rather than Iranian consent

The distinction matters for oil markets. A confirmed ceasefire extension signals the Strait disruption has a finite horizon. An Iranian denial of any ceasefire framework signals the opposite.