Trump Signal IndexSector
US Political Risk
8 reports on how Trump moves US Political Risk markets · 7 bullish · 1 bearish
Signal Trend
Last 3 months · 6 reports
Bar height shows how often US Political Risk appeared in reports that week; color shows whether those reports read the sector as bullish, bearish, or mixed.
2026-08-28
US Political Risk ↑Trump's Account Traded Energy and Defense Stocks 1,051 Times in June — While He Ran the Iran War
Government ethics filings show Trump's stock account made 1,051 trades in June — the month oil prices swung on his Iran war decisions and defense stocks moved on ceasefire negotiations he controlled. The trades: ExxonMobil and Chevron during gasoline price volatility; Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and RTX during the June 12-24 ceasefire MOU talks, some flipped the next day. The White House says a third-party institution manages the account independently. Trump is the first president in modern history to keep an active stock portfolio instead of divesting or using a blind trust.
2026-08-25
US Political Risk ↑Supreme Court Clears Trump's Mail-In Voting Order for Midterms — 6-3 Along Ideological Lines
The Supreme Court on August 24 allowed Trump's March 31 executive order on mail-in voting to take effect for the November midterms. The 6-3 ruling fell exactly along the conservative-liberal split that Trump spent his first term engineering. The order requires USPS to send ballots only to voters on a federally-compiled list. 23 Democrat-led states had sued; lower courts had blocked it. The Court's reasoning: the states lack standing to challenge an 'internal guideline.' A separate USPS-specific injunction remains untouched — the order's actual reach is still uncertain.
2026-08-21
US Political Risk ↓Trump Goes on WABC With Michael Cohen. No Iran Exit. No Trade Regrets. A Political Rapprochement.
Trump appeared on his own WABC Radio station for an interview with Michael Cohen — the former fixer who spent 15 years as Trump's personal attorney, turned state's witness, and is now apparently reconciling. Trump called the US economy an 'economic renaissance,' said he would launch the Iran war '100 times over,' and called Cohen 'brilliant' and a victim of prosecutorial pressure. The meeting of two estranged principals produced no policy news — but signaled Trump's political posture heading into midterms: no regrets, no exits, economy as identity.
2026-08-12
US Political Risk ↑$927 Million for a White House Renovation. Congress Didn't Approve Most of It.
The Trump administration plans to spend at least $927 million on White House renovations — the most expensive in over 80 years. The Washington Post obtained contracts and budget documents showing the administration bypassed the normal Congressional appropriation process, funneling $875 million into a 'repair and restoration' account since January 2025 by redirecting Secret Service training funds and private donations. A federal appeals court has already ruled the East Wing construction must stop. Trump is appealing to the Supreme Court.
2026-07-24
US Political Risk ↑Iran Rejected the US Ceasefire. Trump Says He's Ready for Something Bigger Than Glorious Fury.
Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered through Iraq's Prime Minister — but the Jerusalem Post reports Iran may have initiated the request itself. Now Trump is telling Axios he's 'just about to make a decision' on an attack bigger than Operation Glorious Fury. He called Iranian leaders 'human trash' in the Oval Office. Israel is waiting on standby. And the political clock — November midterms — is now part of the calculus.
2026-07-20
US Political Risk ↑Trump Confirmed the Qatar Plane Lacks Full Defense. His DOJ Subpoenaed the Reporters Who Found It.
Trump told reporters the Qatar-gifted plane would be sent for upgrades in 'about a month,' effectively confirming the NYT's reporting that it lacks the missile defense systems of the original Air Force One. The administration's response to that reporting: FBI leak investigation and DOJ grand jury subpoenas against the NYT journalists. The story is now about two things simultaneously — presidential security and press freedom.
2026-05-27
US Political Risk ↑Trump Turns 80 Next Month. His Annual Physical Is Today. Markets Price Presidential Health Risk Differently Than They Used To.
Trump is scheduled for his annual physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on May 26. He turns 80 on June 14, making him the oldest sitting US president in history. Health speculation has followed him since July 2025, when visible bruising and leg swelling prompted White House explanations. The political and market implications of presidential health uncertainty are not hypothetical.
2026-05-21
US Political Risk ↑Massie Is Gone. Cassidy Is Gone. Trump Is Remaking the Republican Party into a Policy Tool.
Trump-backed political newcomer Ed Galain defeated 12-year incumbent Thomas Massie in Kentucky's Republican primary, 55–45. $33 million flowed into a single House district. Massie had opposed the Iran war, the One Big Beautiful Bill, and military action without Congressional approval. He is the second prominent Republican critic to lose a primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a week.